On Sunday, we had the first big signing of the offseason, as the Phillies brought back right-hander Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172 million deal. As we wait to see which top free-agent starter will come off the board next, let’s look ahead to the trade market for starting pitchers along with other big names who could be dealt such as Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and more. In part one of my November mailbag, I responded to subscribers’ trade proposals and answered 25 trade questions in total, including many that involved top starters who could be on the move such as Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease.
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Questions were edited for clarity and length.
The Padres won’t be able to get back what they gave up for Juan Soto (in the 2022 trade with the Nationals), but what is a reasonable return? Can they get two top-10 prospects back? What is a best-case scenario trade for them. — Kurtis H.
Soto has one more year of team control before he becomes a free agent. If the Padres trade him this offseason, it’s realistic to think in a best-case scenario they’d be able to acquire an average major-league player, a top-three to top-seven prospect (ranking within an organization), a top-12 to top-15 prospect, and maybe even a top-35 to top-40 type prospect. Of course, the return depends on the strength of the other team’s farm system. If it’s a top-10 farm system, then the Padres probably would not get that much in return; if it’s a bottom-10 farm system, they would probably get even more.
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While everyone else is drooling over Soto, I’ve got my eye on another Padres trade candidate. Ha-Seong Kim would single-handedly fix multiple weaknesses on Boston’s roster. The Red Sox would finally have a major-league caliber second baseman who could also cover shortstop in a pinch. Kim would provide plus defense, speed, and right-handed balance to the lineup. The fit could not be more perfect, in my opinion. What would it take for (new chief baseball officer) Craig Breslow to pry him away from (president of baseball operations) A.J. Preller? — Julian B.
There is no doubt that second base is a priority for the Red Sox as they have already engaged in trade talks with the Reds about Jonathan India and with the Yankees regarding Gleyber Torres. Yes, Kim would be a perfect fit for Boston, especially coming off a career-best season. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, San Diego is not looking to move him since he will make only $8 million next year. However, every player is available at the right trade price, and if the Red Sox were willing to offer second base prospect Nick Yorke and a controllable starting pitcher who could help the Padres right now, such as Tanner Houck, perhaps Preller would consider it.
Pete Alonso has a career OPS+ of 136 in five seasons with the Mets. (Bill Streicher / USA Today)Should the Mets seriously consider trades for Pete Alonso? — Ellie D.
The Mets should do everything they can to sign Alonso to a long-term contract, and if they can get a deal done by the end of the Winter Meetings, that’s preferable. However, if they can’t agree to terms, because they control him for only one more year, they should shop him to the Cubs, Giants and Mariners and establish the best possible return they could get. If they don’t find an offer they like, they can always keep him and revisit the situation at the trade deadline.
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Do you think the Guardians could acquire an outfield power bat for Shane Bieber? Here are some trade proposals. Trying to gauge what kind return he would land, and if it would be worth it for Cleveland (especially after they just designated Cal Quantrill for assignment).
• Bieber to the Orioles for Anthony Santander
• Bieber to the Cardinals for Nolan Gorman
• Bieber to the Nationals for Lane Thomas plus a prospect — Andy J.
The Guardians are loaded with young controllable starting pitching and they’re not going to extend Bieber past next year, so they should trade him now. They’re desperate for offense, and dealing him for an outfielder makes the most sense. I think a Bieber-for-Santander trade makes a lot of sense for both the Guardians and Orioles, and I like that idea the best of the three you proposed here. Santander will be a free agent after the 2024 season.
Guardians-Cardinals trade proposal: Is Bieber and James Karinchak for Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman (a fair deal)? — Ryan S.
The Cardinals would get a starter, addressing a big need, and a high-leverage reliever (when he’s right). St. Louis has outfield depth, which makes Carlson expendable. Parting with Edman would not be easy, but for that type of pitching package it makes sense. Yes, I think it’s a fair swap for both sides, but given the injury risk with Bieber, I’d prefer to be on the Guardians’ side of the deal.
The Brewers non-tendered Brandon Woodruff on Friday. Will they trade Corbin Burnes this winter? (Michael McLoone / USA Today)Trade proposal: (Brewers trade) Corbin Burnes to the Rangers for lefty Cody Bradford and righty Jack Leiter. Thoughts? — Ski S.
I like it for both sides. The Rangers get yet another ace, although for just one year, as they try to repeat as World Series champions. This big move would give them a legitimate shot at another title. I like Bradford a lot, and he would go right into the Brewers’ rotation. Leiter, the second-overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, has been a disappointment because of his slow development, but the 23-year-old still has upside and is worth the gamble for Milwaukee. But if I’m the Brewers, I would need another top-30 prospect added to this package to make a deal.
Trade proposal: Dodgers deal Michael Busch, Gavin Lux and two MLB-ready prospect arms (they have several) to the Brewers for Burnes and Willy Adames. Busch was Baseball America’s minor league Player of the Year and he primarily plays first base, a position of need in Milwaukee. Lux is a native Cheesehead who can play shortstop. Let’s do this! — Steve E.
Your trade proposal all hinges on who the two major-league-ready prospect arms are, but if they’re Emmet Sheehan and Nick Frasso, then the Brewers would make that trade so fast your head would spin. Remember, Burnes and Adames are one-year rentals. And the Brewers are never getting a package that strong because of it. But also, they would have no interest in a Lux-for-Adames swap even if it were straight up.
The Mets trade for Burnes? Realistic, and what would they have to give up in the process? — Nel P.
Under the leadership of new president of baseball operations David Stearns, I think the Mets will be looking for long-term answers more than short-term ones such as acquiring Burnes. I expect Stearns to instead chase the top remaining free-agent starters (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell), whom he could sign for five to six years.
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What do you think about the following three trades for the Giants? 1.) Joey Bart to the Marlins for Vidal Bruján. 2.) Michael Conforto and cash to the Yankees for Luis Gil. 3.) Landen Roupp and Hayden Birdsong to the Brewers for Adames. Then sign a top starter (Yamamoto), a center fielder (Jung-hoo Lee), and a swingman-type starter (Micahel Lorenzen) — that seems like a good offseason! — Alex M.
My goodness, you are just wheeling and dealing aren’t you? I think Farhan Zaidi and Pete Putila should hire you as an assistant. I love the idea of signing Yamamoto, Lee and Lorenzen. That trio of moves would be huge for the Giants. (Obviously, it takes two to tango.) The Marlins just acquired Bruján in a trade with the Rays, and I don’t see them having any interest in moving him for Bart. Conforto really doesn’t fit with the Yankees after the year he had, as they’re more focused on a bigger prize such as trading for Juan Soto or signing Cody Bellinger, or landing a better defensive player like Manuel Margot (a potential trade option) or Kevin Kiermaier (a free agent). Also, I think Milwaukee would fare better in trading Adames elsewhere.
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The Giants trade outfielder Luis Matos, two-way player Reggie Crawford and righty Will Bednar for Tyler Glasnow? — Ivory C.
That’s not enough for Glasnow. Sorry.
What could the White Sox get for Dylan Cease? — Barry F.
I think the White Sox would do really well in a Cease trade because he has two years of team control remaining, unlike some of the notable starters who could be dealt. Teams such as the Orioles, Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, Giants, Twins, Rangers and Cardinals will be in on Cease, who finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting in 2022 but logged a 4.58 ERA last season. At the very least, the White Sox would get two top-10 prospects and one top-15 to top-25 prospect too. It would take a strong package from a good farm system.
Luis Robert Jr. for righty Drew Thorpe, outfielder Spencer Jones, righty Will Warren and another top-20 prospect. Rationale: The Yanks get four prime years of team control of a center fielder coming off a 5.0 WAR season. The White Sox cash in on a talented-but-injury-prone player, cut payroll, and gain two starting pitchers and a center-field replacement. Thoughts? — No name given
If I’m the Yankees, I’m making this trade so fast that even Speedy Gonzales looks like a turtle. However, there’s no way the White Sox would do this deal. Robert is the one player in their entire organization who’s not available. It’s not that I don’t like Jones’ potential or the package you proposed. I just like Robert better than all of them combined and I’m sure Chicago does too.
What is the rest of the league’s evaluation of Mariners pitchers Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo? Are they valuable enough to swing a notable trade on their own, or will they need to be packaged with a prospect to bring back a significant bat? — No name given
Miller and Woo have significant value on their own and in a deal certainly could bring back a significant bat such as Jonathan India from the Reds or Nolan Gorman from the Cardinals.
The Cardinals need pitching. The Mariners have said they are looking for outfielders and more contact. What if the Cardinals offered Edman, Alec Burleson and pitching prospect Tink Hence. What pitcher could they get in return? Is there a team they would match up better with for this package? — Kevin K.
The Mariners have made it clear they are not planning on moving any of their young major-league starters, but perhaps a Tommy Edman-for-Emerson Hancock deal could make sense for both sides. As far as the names you mentioned, what about a trade with the Guardians? But let’s keep Hence out of the deal. Offering Edman and Burleson or Carlson for Bieber has to be in the vicinity of what it would take for Cleveland because Bieber is under team control for just one more year. However, if healthy, he’s a top-of-the-rotation starter, and he might be open to signing long term with St. Louis. It’s at least close in terms of trade value. But Hence is too valuable of a prospect for St. Louis to trade him at this point.
If you’re the Cardinals, would you rather deal Edman (higher positional flexibility) or Brendan Donovan (two more years of control and more offense)? Does Thomas Saggese coming up change your thoughts? (He seems like a bit of a Donovan clone.) — Kevin K.
I like Edman over Donovan, but I wouldn’t let either stand in the way of trades for major-league-ready starting pitching.
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Trade proposal: The Cardinals send Iván Herrera (MLB-ready catcher), Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman and Chase Davis (outfield prospect) to the White Sox for Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr. Chicago needs to rebuild, and with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, St. Louis isn’t taking steps back. The Cardinals need pitching. (Trading for) Cease and (singing a top free-agent starter) would provide a new SP1/2 combo. An outfield of Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Robert looks good to me. — David L.
The White Sox would slam down the phone and no longer take calls from the Cardinals based on this outrageous proposal. That would be one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history and it would lead to a short tenure for new White Sox general manager Chris Getz.
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Triston Casas for George Kirby — who says no? Seems like a deal that would work for both teams (Boston and Seattle). — Jon C.
I think it’s a fair offer in terms of the overall talent of the two players. However, Seattle is the team that says no. It’s too hard to get controllable starting pitching with the ceiling of Kirby, who has special command and control.
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Alex Verdugo will be a free agent after next season. (Jim Cowsert / USA Today)What are you hearing in the industry regarding the Red Sox trading Alex Verdugo? What are some realistic trade offers that could bring back either a right-handed-hitting outfielder, a designated hitter, a second baseman or pitching (a starter or reliever)? — Nathan P.
The Red Sox have been shopping Verdugo, looking for a second baseman or starting pitching in return. I’ve been told they have not received any offers to their liking. The best return will come if he’s packaged with other players in a much bigger deal.
Do the Braves have enough young pieces to be able to trade for an established, quality starter to bolster the rotation? — Justin F.
The Braves’ farm system is not what it once was because most of the elite talent is in the big leagues or has already been traded. They would have a tough time competing with teams with stronger farm systems for top-of-the rotation starters like Glasnow, Burnes, Bieber and Cease. That’s not to say it can’t be done. I will never underestimate the ability of their president of baseball operations, Alex Anthopoulos, who’s one of the best in the business.
Would Baltimore trade infield prospect Joey Ortiz if the Braves offered some of their young pitchers? Like a Dylan Dodd/Darius Vines type plus Spencer Schwellenbach, Owen Murphy and Blake Burkhalter? — Stacey J.
The Orioles would trade Joey Ortiz in a package if they could get a top-of-the-rotation starter in return, which they’ve been trying to do for quite some time. I’m not sure they match up well with the Braves though.
Trade proposal: Vaughn Grissom plus a top starting pitching prospect for Glasnow. Rays get a replacement for Wander Franco at shortstop and salary relief. Braves get a front-line starter for a year. — Eric W.
I like the concept, but who’s the top starting pitching prospect the Braves have to offer? I can’t find him either.
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Braves add RP Bummer from White Sox for Soroka, 4 others
What would Milwaukee have to attach to a Christian Yelich trade (assuming they could get him to waive his no-trade clause) to get out from under that albatross of a contract? I’m looking at you Los Angeles Dodgers. — John S.
You called it an albatross for a reason. The Brewers are not going to be able to move the Yelich contract unless they eat most of it, and after his somewhat of a comeback season in 2023, I think he’s destined to finish his career with Milwaukee.
Trade proposal: Mets send infielder Luis Guillorme and infielder Mark Vientos to the Blue Jays for righty José Berríos. — Mike B.
The Blue Jays front office is laughing so hard at this proposal that they’re having stomach cramps and it’s taking way longer than it should for them to say, “No freakin’ way!” The Jays may take Berríos out of the most important game of his career when he’s pitching his best, but they’re not taking him off the roster for that return. Sorry, that’s a no go.
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Trade proposal: Royals trade Salvador Perez to the Marlins for Avisaíl García and Edward Cabrera. García offsets the cost for the Marlins and they get a catcher, filling a desperate need. Kansas City takes a flier on a young controllable (albeit wild) arm. Thoughts? — No name given
For the rebuilding Royals, being able to acquire a young starting pitcher with the ceiling of Cabrera is something they should consider. The Marlins need a leader and a game caller for their pitching staff, and they have young starting pitching depth, so I think they should consider this deal too. I actually like it for both sides. However, the Royals have made it clear to me that they are not trading Perez and he’ll finish his career as a Royal.
(Top photo of Shane Bieber: Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press)
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