NASCAR Cup Series Coke Zero Sugar 400 odds, picks: Daytona hosts what could be a wild regular season

NASCAR’s regular season ends Saturday at Daytona International Speedway with the Coke Zero Sugar 400. It is the last chance for drivers to make the playoff field.

The playoff field got a shakeup with Kurt Busch pulling out of the playoffs due to a head injury. With Busch’s spot open, there will be at least one spot in the playoffs going to a non-race winner. Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. are currently in the playoffs on points, but if we get a new race winner on Saturday, one of those will not make the postseason.

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The Athletic’s motorsports reporters, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, discussed all the potential postseason drama and what to expect from this race.

Daytona opens and ends the regular season. Should such a famous track have a postseason race?

Gluck: Heck no. One superspeedway in the playoffs is plenty, and Talladega isn’t going anywhere. This race is too random to have playoff implications, but it’s also absolutely perfect in the regular season finale spot as a wild card/last-chance race. Honestly, putting it at the end of the regular season is one of the best moves NASCAR has made in recent years. It should stay there.

Bianchi: One visit to a superspeedway is enough in the playoffs and with Talladega’s spot cemented in Round 2, there is no viable spot to shift the second Daytona race. Leave it as is. Plus, having Daytona end the regular season is a perfect fit. It creates a sense of drama and unpredictability that cannot be replicated at most other tracks. Shifting Daytona off Fourth of July weekend was a controversial move when it happened, but one that has since proved to be a masterstroke.

Are you expecting the playoff field to change after this race or is it likely to stay as it is now?

Gluck: The odds have certainly increased after it was revealed Thursday that Kurt Busch will no longer be in the playoff field. Now there’s both a chance for a new winner (which would knock out either Truex or Blaney) as well as the final spot on points to change hands (Truex is 25 points behind Blaney, so a Blaney crash could switch it all up). Personally, I think there’s going to be a new winner but also believe Blaney will be able to play off Truex’s strategy to stay ahead of him in points.

Bianchi: We know that Busch withdrawing from the playoffs means that at least one of Blaney or Truex gets in via points, leaving the other spot up for bid. So the answer to this question is dependent on whether you think a new winner emerges Saturday night. A driver getting their first victory of the season would knockout either Blaney or Truex, and the prospect for this occurring is certainly on the table. In the battle between Blaney and Truex, Blaney definitely holds the advantage. His 25‐point advantage gives him a cushion in case misfortune strikes and he’s better on superspeedways than Truex, who’s never won a superspeedway whereas Blaney has three victories.

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Chase Elliott (+1000) leads the points standings and is favored, but hasn’t won in Daytona. Is this the race where he gets his first win at this track?

Gluck: Why anyone would pick Chase Elliott to win this race is beyond me. He has perhaps the least to gain of any playoff driver; his points position is already locked in as the regular season champion and he has the lowest odds value-wise. Why not put your money on a potential bigger payoff? Elliott is capable of winning, but holding off a pack of absolutely desperate drivers who HAVE to win in order to make the playoffs is a tall order.

Bianchi: Although Elliott has never won at Daytona, he is proficient on superspeedways and should be a contender to win Saturday night. And that he’s already clinched the regular season championship may work in his favor as he can race aggressively and not worry about points. But, as Jeff noted, picking Elliott doesn’t bring much value and you’re better off wagering on someone with steeper odds.

The Daytona 500 had seven cautions. Will we see that many again or will this be a smoother race?

Gluck: This race is 100 miles shorter, but we also might see more chaos than in the season-opening race. That said, I can envision a scenario where drivers ride for much of the night in a relatively calm affair before getting nutty at the end with some absolutely mad moves. Aside from racing for stage points, there’s really no reason to cost yourself the race and get caught in a huge crash before the last 100 miles. We’ll see if the bubble drivers feel like they can lay back and wait for others to take themselves out or simply go for it from the start and stay up front all night.

Bianchi: A clear pattern has emerged in the two years Daytona has hosted the regular season championship: The first two stages are relatively mild with drivers largely avoiding risky moves that could cause a big crash and take them out. Then, with about 25 laps or so remaining, all hell breaks loose with a rash of multi‐car accidents. And both races have also gone into overtime. Expect this to be how Saturday night’s race unfolds.

Who is your pick to win the race?

Gluck: Justin Haley is +5000 and one of the biggest longshots in the field. Yet I think he can actually pull this off. Haley is criminally underrated as a superspeedway racer. He has four superspeedway wins in the Xfinity Series (and crossed the finish line first in another before NASCAR took it away due to the yellow line rule). He won the Cup Series’ rain-shortened Daytona summer race in 2019 – which obviously required the help of weather, but Haley still had to be in position. Notably, he has only crashed out of one superspeedway race at the Cup level in nine attempts. A Haley win would be a massive upset, but he’s also racing for his playoff life and perhaps his Cup career. He’ll be motivated and determined to do whatever it takes on Saturday night; the problem is, there are many others in the same boat.

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Bianchi: It’s really hard not to pick an upset winner. Especially with so much value to be had with drivers like Brad Keselowski (+2200), Aric Almirola (+2800), Austin Dillon (+2800), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2800) and Michael McDowell (+3300) having longer odds than you’d think considering how good they are on superspeedway tracks. But Ryan Blaney is the pick because his record at Daytona and Talladega cannot be ignored. He is the defending race winner, came within a few hundred feet of winning the Daytona 500 in February and the accompanying bonus points that come with a win are something he needs heading into the playoffs.

Coke Zero Sugar 400 odds

(Photo of Justin Haley: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

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