The hits keep on coming for you Survivor pool enthusiasts. Last week the mighty AFC West got swept by the AFC South when the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders bit the dust against the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans respectively. The AFC West wasn’t the only division to find itself on the wrong side of an upset this past Sunday. In fact, eight of the 16 underdogs triumphed in Week 3.
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It’s been a weird start to the season. Need proof? The Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles are the only teams still undefeated through the first three weeks of the season, while the Las Vegas Raiders are the only team sitting at 0-3.
So, with all of this unpredictability, congratulations if you are still alive. If you have already won the survivor pool, then proudly wear that title as a badge of honor.
For those of you still looking for some strategy, here are two approaches I suggest taking over the next four weeks.
Strategy 1
Save – Eagles, Ravens, Bucs, Chiefs, Dolphins
Strategy 2
Week 5: Bucs vs. Falcons
Week 6: Packers vs. Jets
Week 7: Chargers vs. Seahawks
Save – Eagles, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins
The logic behind these two strategies involves keeping as many quality quarterbacks at your disposal for later in the season. Right now, the two quarterbacks leading the early MVP race are Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. If I can keep them in my back pocket along with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady or Josh Allen, I like my chances down the stretch.
Week 4 Chalk Picks
Speaking of elite quarterbacks, the likes Mahomes, Allen and Brady all took the L at the hands of underdog opponents on Sunday. The Chiefs practically gift-wrapped the Colts an early touchdown via a Skyy Moore muffed a punt inside their own 10-yard line and compounded that mistake with a failed fake field goal and missed field goal later in the game to help me go 0-2 in this section last week.
Here are the most chalky picks for Week 4.
| Team | Opponent | Pick % |
|---|---|---|
vs. Patriots | 24.7% | |
at Texans | 16.8% | |
vs. Jaguars | 16.4% | |
vs. Seahawks | 9.2% | |
vs. Jets | 7.3% |
Packers vs. Patriots
We are starting out our picks this week with the chalkiest of the chalk. Sure, many might point out the fact that Packers offense produced just 14 points against the Bucs in Week 3, but what I think shouldn’t be overlooked is just how stout the Packers defense has looked over the last two weeks, allowing just 22 points.
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Unfortunately for the Patriots, who spent most of the preseason being shredded by the media for their offensive struggles during training camp, appears to have lost their starting quarterback, Mac Jones for some time moving forward.
It will be a tall order for the likes of Brian Hoyer to head to Lambeau Field and outscore the reigning back-to-back league MVP in his own house. My money is on Aaron Rodgers handling his business at home.
Pick: Packers
Lions vs. Seahawks
Don’t let the Lions 1-2 record fool you… this team has been incredibly competitive in 2022. In fact, they had a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Vikings before allowing the go ahead score later in the game.
The fact remains that this offense has produced the second most points in the league, trailing only Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
Well, they’ll welcome a Seattle Seahawks team to Ford Field that has allowed 27 points in each of the last two games against average offensive units, including surrendering over 150 yards on the ground in both of those contests.
Even if D’Andre Swift misses this game, Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds should be able to exploit what has been a weakness for the Seahawks defensively through the first three weeks of the season.
Pick: Lions
Contrarian Picks
I’d like to personally thank Lamar Jackson for helping save my pick integrity last week by giving me a record of 1-1 in the contrarian section. While 4-2 in this section is nothing to write home about, I’m going back to contrarian well with one of my two picks this week.
The Giants’ offensive line looked rough on Monday Night Football against a menacing Cowboys pass rush. You want to know what looks worse? The Chicago Bears passing offense through the first three weeks of the season.
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Justin Fields is yet to complete 10 passes in a game this season, unless you count his two completions to other team this past Sunday against the Texans. Sure, Khalil Herbert looked great against a Houston defense that has allowed over 100 yards rushing in each game this season, but I can only imagine the Giants will do everything they can to make Fields beat them through the air on the road.
If the Giants’ offensive line can take how they got embarrassed by the Cowboys on national television to heart and play with some purpose against the Bears, I can see Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones making enough plays to outscore a struggling Bears offensive unit.
Pick: Giants
Browns at Falcons
Admittedly, picking a second contrarian game will come with some risk. However, the Browns’ offense has seemingly found an effective formula throughout this season. Give your opponent a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and then sprinkle in Amari Cooper to keep the defense honest.
The Falcons have stayed competitive in every game so far this season, so heading into Atlanta won’t be an easy task. However, if Myles Garrett is a go and Denzel Ward can rise to challenge against the talented rookie from USC, Drake London, then the Browns’ defense should compliment the offenses’ rushing attack, which should be able to control the time of possession and outcome of the game.
Pick: Browns
Let us know who you pick for Week 4 of NFL action in the comments below!
(Photo of Aaron Rodgers: Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)
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